基于多变量的集成预测模型在隧道拱顶沉降变形预测中的应用

Abstract
Figure/Table
References (0)
Related Citation (15)

Abstract The settlement of tunnel vault, which is a complicated process that includes combined actions of multiple factors together, is difficult to calculate accurately with mathematical model. In the actual construction process, the surrounding rock often changes, so we must strictly control the tunnel vault settlement to meet design requirements. Traditional prediction models can obtain only a rough estimate of the vault settlement by using the monitoring data to fit and forecast its changes. To solve the problem, this paper constructs a time-series model, GM (1, 2) model, and BP model with input variables to predict the settlement of the vault. The effectiveness of the model is verified by examples, which show that the GM (1,1) prediction model of a single variable is completely ineffective. To avoid the lower prediction accuracy of single model and use the complementary advantages of different models, this paper establishes an integrated prediction model based on the above three models, and its weighting coefficient is determined by the application of the entropy method. The model is applied to Baimiaozi Tunnel for testing, which provides high-speed travel from Baoji to Hanzhong (two cities in Shanxi Province). The integrated model is effective in practice and has a high prediction accuracy.

Key words： tunnel engineering multivariable mode integrated prediction vault subsidence neural network

Received: 19 June 2017

Corresponding Authors: XIAO Da-hai E-mail: 2473537046@qq.com

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	XIAO Da-hai
	XIE Quan-min
	YANG Wen-dong

Cite this article:

XIAO Da-hai,XIE Quan-min,YANG Wen-dong. Application of Integrated Forecasting Model Based on Multi-variables in Tunnel Vault Settlement[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2018, 12(3): 46-52.

URL:

http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/EN/ OR http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/EN/Y2018/V12/I3/46

[1] HAO Zhe,LUO Ao, LIU Bin.Multi-factor Model for Tunnel System Prediction[J]. Geotechnical Engineering, 2004,18(3):116-121.(in Chinese)
[2] QI Su, ZHOU De-jun, WANG Li-ying, et al.Study on Deformation Prediction of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Based on Gray-Markov Chain[J]. Modern Tunneling Technology, 2013, 50(1):80-86.(in Chinese)
[3] AN Yong-lin, HUANG Kan, PENG Li-min, et al. Study on Stability of Tunnels by Strength Reduction Method[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2011, 28(4):91-95.(in Chinese)
[4] YANG Wei-chao, PENG Li-min, HUANG Juan, et al. Application of Non-stationary Time Series Analysis Method in Deformation Prediction of Tunnel Construction[J]. Journal of Zhengzhou University:Engineering Science, 2008,29(1):132-135.(in Chinese)
[5] LONG Hao, GAO Rui, KONG De-xin, et al. Prediction of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Displacement Based on BP Neural Network-Markov Chain Model[J]. Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute, 2013,30(3):40-43, 55.(in Chinese)
[6] WANG Shou-yang, YU Le-an, LI Jian-qiang. Application of TEI@I Methodology to Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting[J].Chinese Journal of Management, 2007,4(1):21-27.(in Chinese)
[7] WANG Yuan-zheng, XU Ya-jing.Application of Multiple Stationary Time Series ARIMAX Model[J]. Statistics and Decision, 2007(18):132-135.(in Chinese)
[8] WANG Li-ming.Application Time Series[M]. Shanghai:Fudan University Press,2008:220-226.(in Chinese)
[9] GAO Wen-hua, ZHU Jian-qun, HUANG Zi-yong, et al. Gray Self-adaptive Model of Dynamic Prediction of Surrounding Rock Deformation and Its Parameter Identification[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2012, 29(1):114-132.(in Chinese)
[10] LIN Kuo-huang,LIU Bin-da. A Gray System Modeling Approach to the Prediction of Calibration Intervals[J]. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement,2005,54(1):297-304.
[11] LI Jian-lin, LI Zhi-qiang, ZHENG Ji-dong.Gray GM (1,2) Prediction Model for Mine Water Discharge[J]. Journal of Henan Polytechnic University:Natural Science Edition, 2016, 35(3):368-372.
[12] ZHOU Guo-xiong, MO Xiao-shan. Integrated Prediction Method Based on Gray Prediction and BP Manifold Pressure[J]. Journal of Instrumentation, 2011,32(7):1648-1654.(in Chinese)
[13] AN Yong-lin, PENG Li-min.Comparative Analysis and Demonstration of Predicting Water Gushing in Tunnel with BP and GM (1,1)[J]. Science and Technology Review, 2008,13:71-74.(in Chinese)
[14] ZHAO Zhi-ye,GONG Qiu-ming,ZHANG Yun,et al. Prediction Model of Tunnel Boring Machine Performance by Ensemble Neural Networks[J]. Geomechanics and Geoengineering,2007,2(2):123-128.
[15] CHEN Hua-you.Application of Entropy Method in Determining Weight of Combination Forecast[J]. Journal of Anhui University:Natural Science, 2003,27(4):1-6.(in Chinese)
[16] WANG Chun-sheng, WU Min, Cao Wei-hua. An Intelligent Integrated Forecasting Model of Sintered ore Returning Quantity Based on GIS and SVM[J].Control and Decision, 2008,23(4):450-454,459.(in Chinese)