|
|
A Graph Convolutional Network Based Model for Traffic Flow Prediction Using Multimodal Spatial and Temporal Data |
CHEN Meng, LI Kai, CHEN Fei, FAN Yong |
Sichuan Expressway Construction & Development Group Co., LTD-Alibaba Cloud Joint Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation, Sichuan Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation Service, Chengdu Sichuan 610000, China |
|
|
Abstract In this paper, with the continuous expansion of cities in China, ring expressways have been adopted in most cities, playing a positive role in diverting urban transit traffic, relieving urban congestion, and improving traffic efficiency. However, few scholars have conducted comprehensive and systematic studies on ring expressways. Traffic flow characteristics, situation assessment and prediction, and operation management measures are still in research. Due to the disadvantages of the traditional models using single data sources and its limitation to describe and forecast specific roads, we demonstrate an algorithm-optimized model(TK-GCN) based on graph convolutional networks(T-GCN) for capturing multimodal spatial and temporal datasets and Kalman filtering for correcting the evolution of phase points, to describe the phenomena of the Chengdu ring expressway (National Expressway G4202) in China from May to October 2019, according to dynamic data observed from our intelligent transportation system. Experiments on traffic datasets show good performance of our deep architecture. Abundant experiments show that our approach achieved improvements over the state of the art. It is also presented that our model can improve the generalization performance of shared tasks. These positive results demonstrate that our model is promising in transportation research.
|
Received: 22 April 2021
|
Corresponding Authors:
CHEN Meng
E-mail: mytinco@qq.com
|
|
|
|
[1] LÜ Y S, DUAN Y J, KANG W W, et al. Traffic Flow Prediction with Big Data:A Deep Learning Approach[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2015, 16(2):865-873.
[2] SHI Q, ABDEL-ATY M. Big Data Applications in Real-time Traffic Operation and Safety Monitoring and Improvement on Urban Expressways[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies, 2015, 58:380-394.
[3] GHOSH B, BASU B, O'MAHONY M. Bayesian Time-series Model for Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting[J]. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 2007, 133(3):180-189.
[4] MOORTHY C K, RATCLIFFE B G. Short Term Traffic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods[J]. Transportation Planning and Technology, 1988, 12(1):45-56.
[5] THOMAS T, WEIJERMARS W, BERKUM E V. Predictions of Urban Volumes in Single Time Series[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2010, 11(1):71-80.
[6] SUN S L, XU X. Variational Inference for Infinite Mixtures of Gaussian Processes with Applications to Traffic Flow Prediction[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2011, 12(2):466-475.
[7] MA W, WANG R. Traffic Flow Forecasting Research Based on Bayesian Normalized Elman Neural Network[C]//2015 IEEE Signal Processing and Signal Processing Education Workshop (SP/SPE). Salt Lake City:IEEE, 2015:426-430.
[8] CASTRO-NETO M, JEONG Y S, JEONG M K, et al. Online-SVR for Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction Under Typical and Atypical Traffic Conditions[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2009, 36(3):6164-6173.
[9] DELL'ACQUA P, BELLOTTI F, BERTA R, et al. Time-aware Multivariate Nearest Neighbor Regression Methods for Traffic Flow Prediction[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2015, 16(6):3393-3402.
[10] YIN S, XIE X, SUN W. A Nonlinear Process Monitoring Approach with Locally Weighted Learning of Available Data[J]. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 2017, 64(2):1507-1516.
[11] ZHANG Y, ZHANG Y, HAGHANI A. A Hybrid Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Method Based on Spectral Analysis and Statistical Volatility Model[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies, 2014, 43:65-78.
[12] DIA H. An Object-oriented Neural Network Approach to Short-term Traffic Forecasting[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001, 131(2):253-261.
[13] WIDERSKI A, JÓZ·WIAK A, JACHIMOWSKI R. Operational Quality Measures of Vehicles Applied for the Transport Services Evaluation Using Artificial Neural Networks[J]. Maintenance and Reliability, 2018, 20(2):292-299.
[14] TORNATORE M. Data Analytics and Machine Learning Applied to Transport Layer[C]//2018 Optical Fiber Communications Conference and Exposition (OFC). San Diego:IEEE, 2018.
[15] CHAN K Y, DILLON T S, SINGH J, et al. Neural-network-based Models for Short-term Traffic Flow Forecasting Using a Hybrid Exponential Smoothing and Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2012, 13(2):644-654.
[16] RUTKA G. Neural Network Models for Internet Traffic Prediction[J]. Elektronika ir Elektrotechnika, 2015, 68(4):55-58.
[17] DO L, TAHERIFAR N, VU H L. Survey of Neural Network-based Models for Short-term Traffic State Prediction[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews:Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 2019, 9(1):e1285.
[18] HEYDARI G, VALI M, GHARAVEISI A A. Chaotic Time Series Prediction via Artificial Neural Square Fuzzy Inference System[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2016, 55:461-468.
[19] KESKIN M E, TAYLAN D, TERZI Ö. Adaptive Neural-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) Approach for Modelling Hydrological Time Series[J]. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2006, 51(4):588-598.
[20] STATHOPOULOS A, DIMITRIOU L, TSEKERIS T. Fuzzy Modeling Approach for Combined Forecasting of Urban Traffic Flow[J]. Computer Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2008, 23(7):521-535.
[21] SRINIVASAN D, CHAN C W, BALAJI P G. Computational Intelligence-based Congestion Prediction for a Dynamic Urban Street Network[J]. Neurocomputing, 2009, 72(10/11/12):2710-2716.
[22] TAN M C, WONG S C, XU J M, et al. An Aggregation Approach to Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2009, 10(1):60-69.
[23] CHATTERJEE S, GHOSH S, DAWN S, et al. Forest Type Classification:A Hybrid NN-GA Model Based Approach[M]. New Delhi:Information Systems Design and Intelligent Applications, 2016:227-236.
[24] XIANG J, HAN X, DUAN F, et al. A Novel Hybrid System for Feature Selection Based on an Improved Gravitational Search Algorithm and k-NN Method[J]. Applied Soft Computing, 2015, 31:293-307.
[25] XUE S, JIANG H, DAI L. Speaker Adaptation of Hybrid NN/HMM Model for Speech Recognition Based on Singular Value Decomposition[C]//The 9th International Symposium on Chinese Spoken Language Processing. Singapore:IEEE, 2014.
[26] KARYSTINOS G N, PADOS D A. On Overfitting, Generalization, and Randomly Expanded Training Sets[J]. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 2000:11(5):1050-1057.
[27] SETIONO R. Feedforward Neural Network Construction Using Cross Validation[J]. Neural Computation, 2001, 13(12):2865-2877.
[28] LIU Y, STARZYK J A, ZHU Z. Optimized Approximation Algorithm in Neural Networks without Overfitting[J]. IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks, 2008, 19(6):983-995.
[29] ZHAO L, SONG Y, ZHANG C, et al. T-GCN:A Temporal Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Prediction[J]. IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, 2019:1-11.
[30] QIAN Wei, YANG Hui-hui, SUN Yu-juan. Kalman Filtering Traffic Flow Prediction Research Based on Phase Space Reconstruction[J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2016(14):37-41. (in Chinese) |
|
|
|